| Table 4a | ||||||
| Chronology of the ERM crises regime | ||||||
| (from entry to the first realignment) | ||||||
| Date | Mn Rtrn | Cond sd | Smoothed probabilities | |||
| (% pw) | (% pw) | very low | high | very high | ||
| 04-08-92 | -0,53 | 0,19 | 85% | 13% | ||
| 04-15-92 | 0,06 | 0,38 | 82% | 17% | ||
| 04-22-92 | -0,80 | 0,33 | 71% | 29% | ||
| 04-29-92 | -1,08 | 0,55 | 71% | 29% | ||
| 05-06-92 | -0,68 | 0,62 | 81% | 18% | ||
| 05-13-92 | -0,65 | 0,53 | 87% | 13% | ||
| 05-20-92 | 0,00 | 0,51 | 92% | 7% | ||
| 05-27-92 | -0,21 | 0,43 | 94% | 5% | ||
| 06-03-92 | 0,06 | 0,40 | 94% | 5% | ||
| 06-11-92 | 0,32 | 0,37 | 92% | 7% | ||
| 06-17-92 | -0,27 | 0,37 | 88% | 11% | ||
| 06-24-92 | -0,03 | 0,39 | 82% | 18% | ||
| 07-01-92 | 0,49 | 0,35 | 63% | 37% | ||
| 07-08-92 | 0,72 | 0,41 | 45% | 55% | ||
| 07-15-92 | 1,22 | 0,44 | 27% | 73% | ||
| 07-22-92 | 0,22 | 0,65 | 31% | 69% | ||
| 07-29-92 | -0,42 | 0,51 | 28% | 72% | ||
| 08-05-92 | 0,41 | 0,52 | 24% | 76% | ||
| 08-12-92 | 0,35 | 0,52 | 19% | 81% | ||
| 08-19-92 | 1,30 | 0,44 | 5% | 95% | ||
| 08-26-92 | 0,72 | 0,78 | 20% | 80% | ||
| 09-02-92 | 0,30 | 0,65 | 27% | 73% | ||
| 09-09-92 | 0,00 | 0,54 | 25% | 75% | ||
| 09-16-92 | 0,70 | 0,45 | 15% | 85% | ||
| 09-23-92 | -0,13 | 0,57 | 12% | 88% | ||
| 09-30-92 | 0,78 | 0,49 | 4% | 96% | ||
| 10-07-92 | 0,28 | 0,65 | 89% | 4% | 6% | |
| 10-14-92 | 0,12 | 0,49 | 94% | 5% | 1% | |
| 10-21-92 | 0,01 | 0,31 | 95% | 5% | ||
| 10-28-92 | 0,02 | 0,15 | 94% | 6% | ||
| 11-04-92 | 0,03 | 0,08 | 85% | 15% | ||
| 11-11-92 | -0,32 | 0,06 | 100% | |||
| 11-18-92 | 0,12 | 0,36 | 98% | 2% | ||
| 11-25-92 | 0,59 | 0,36 | 96% | 4% | ||
| Source: Calculations summarised in Appendix Table 3a in [1999] | ||||||
| Note: "low" and "medium" volatility states were negligible. | ||||||
| Probabilities may not add to 100 due to rounding. | ||||||